I’ve just read Eric Krapf’s post titled: Avaya-Nortel Merger, why it’s likely to fail. In it Eric sites many reasons why he believes, as the title suggests, that the MERGER take over between Avaya – Nortel will fail. Although well written, and arguments well presented, I believe Eric is way off base. 3 weeks ago I also questioned the take over, further research has now proven otherwise. Some of Krapf’s reasons include:
KRAPF:
Companies overpaid and have too much leverage–crushed by debt & then the bloodletting begins
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I suppose the presumption here is that Avaya is going to overpay. Is $475 Million a reasonable offer, or a steal ? I suggest $475 Million is a steal. Although I believe that Avaya will ultimately be forced to pay more then $475 Million, and that Nortel Enterprise will end-up a bidding war selling for $800 Million, even at that rate, should Avaya decide to purchase, could make their money back in a very short time.
KRAPF:
Poor strategic and tactical planning–once the deal is done, the executives can’t decide what to do next (call it “the Iraq problem”)
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I’m sure that there are some very smart people (many of whom I have met personally) sitting in a dark smoky room planning and strategizing how they will make this take over succeed. Krapf suggests poor strategic and tactical planning – conjecture really. Nothing backing this claim up !
KRAPF:
Cultural clashes–Geeks-Suits, Europeans-Americans, Data heads-Bell heads
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Cultural clashes – this is a take over, not a merger. Zafirovski has left the building. BOD has been reduced from 9 to 3.
Geeks-Suits – A year ago maybe. Avaya’s got a new chief in town and he’s doing a fantastic job.
KRAPF:
Strategically ill-conceived–even when the entire industry doesn’t see the value, somehow the buyer knows something everyone else doesn’t
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The industry does see the value. Nortel’s got some major market share. Customers have been buying that value for a LONG time. Nortel has a LOT of product in the market. Lots of maintenance contracts, government contracts, customers, channel partners … and that revenue will now goto … “principally” AVAYA !
KRAPF:
The buyer forgets it’s really acquiring people
The Avaya-Nortel deal is really about bringing together very talented people quickly (my worry is that many of the really good people may already be gone) to create something unique which offers genuine value to customers looking for communications technologies, services, and support. The deal and its ability to succeed is ultimately about employees, customers, channel partners, and suppliers. It is about making the deal happen with speed, minimal debt, and minimal impact to these key groups of people.
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Yes, good point Eric. And, as I stated earlier, Avaya has some amazingly talented business folks running the show. Avaya 2009 is not the same as Avaya 2007. Avaya 2007 was a stodgy, slow moving organization. Avaya 2009, post the Silver Lakes, TPG acquisition, has morphed into an entrepreneurial well oiled machine. A year ago I might have been more inclined to agree with you Eric. Not today. When I met Charlie Giancarlo last June, and then Kevin Kennedy in January of this year they both preached the same message. “Avaya WILL become a dealer centric organization within 3 years.” And the changes in the last 6 months have been outstanding. Avaya has made some big commitments in the last year, and they have followed through. And this is a BIG ship to turn around – kudos to Kennedy and his team for what so far seems like a job very well done. Granted, there is still some work to do, but, given what I have witnessed in the last 6 months the NEW Avaya is completely different from the OLD Avaya.
Yes, Avaya has been promising channel changes for the last 8 years. They’re doing it. I see the difference. Digitcom is a channel partner. I just finished a full day’s Channel Summit meeting held at Avaya’s Canadian head office. This isn’t something they would have done a year ago. That’s because this is a NEW AVAYA. Their focus is channels.
KRAPF:
I have an idea of who should–without naming names, I can tell you the profile of the “company” that has the best chance of pulling it off. The acquiring firm needs to be a private equity group with leadership who knows the communications business, has an intimate understanding of Nortel Enterprise, genuinely knows the people side of technology, and can quickly convince customers that it makes good sense to once again buy Nortel products and services.
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Eric, you just described Avaya !
More: You can read some more comments on AllAboutNortel.com regarding this post.