3 new cell companies coming to Canada. My guess – 2 are doomed. Public Mobile, Wind Mobile, or Dave Wireless ?

Do you remember that old University “first day” story about the professor that gets in front of the class and says “look to your left, now look to your right. Next year one of you won’t be here”.

I’m going to do some forecasting and make a similar statement about the future cellular market. We have 3 new companies opening shop in the next 6 months, and my prediction is that two of the 3 cell companies won’t be around in 1 year.

Here’s my prediction of what the market will look like next year at this time:

One of the cell companies will have trouble launching. Their technology will be rife with problems, which in turn will strain their customer service department with phone calls. A negative sentiment will set-in fairly quickly – they won’t make it past the one year mark.

One of the cell companies will launch successfully, but, they will struggle to differentiate themselves from the competition and will find it difficult to fund the expansion beyond the first year. Plans won’t materialize as expected, and they will be forced to sell the business at a discounted price to one of the incumbents.

One of the cell companies will launch successfully, will understand the marketing, customer service, and pricing model, and will become a formidable competitive force in the Canadian cellular marketplace.

My crystal ball suggests that – one year from this December, we will have 4 well established cellular players in Canada. Bell, Telus, Rogers, and ______________________ (FILL IN THE BLANK)

Who might that be ? Read on …

And, check back Thursday for the continuation of this post. This posting is part of a 4 part series on a re-cap of the new cell companies (Pubic Mobile, Dave Wireless, and Wind Mobile) coming to Canada, a round-out, analysis, and perspective on who will succeed, and who will fail.

More: TheTelecomBlog.com has profiled all 3 new carriers in previous posts. You can read about them:
Coming to Canada this Fall – profiling Public Mobile
Coming to Canada this Fall – profiling Wind Mobile
Coming this winter to Canada. Profiling Dave Wireless.

Written by: Jeff Wiener. www.digitcom.ca. Follow TheTelecomBlog.com by: RSS, Twitter, Identi.ca, or Friendfeed

Canadians should be in a National Uproar over the Globalive / CRTC hearings. Is Globalive Canadian owned ? Does it matter ?

It apparently does, and the incumbents (Bell, Telus, Rogers) are pissed – why ? Well, here’s the new kid on the block that’s going to rain on their parade. If you were one of three firms operating in an oligopoly ripping consumers off for so many years, and a new competitive threat was knocking on the door, wouldn’t you do anything you could to stop the new companies from entering the market ?

And on the flip side, the Canadian consumer should be pissed. We have opened up wireless spectrum to allow for more competition in the marketplace. We need this competition to drive down prices and improve service. We should be in a national uproar that these CRTC hearings are even happening – if Globalive is stopped from entering the Canadian marketplace it’s the consumer that will suffer. It’s particularly disturbing considering Industry Canada has already approved the Globalive structure.

I did a post a few weeks ago about Globalive, one of Canada’s three new cell companies getting ready to launch in the next few months.

Well – with the help of the CRTC, Globalive is back in the news.

The CRTC, apparently the pet dog of Rogers , Telus, and Bell, was let loose to freely attack Globalive. Telus, Bell and Rogers, under the guise of the CRTC, seem to have a bit of a problem with the funding that Anthony Lacavera received to make the bid on the Canadian spectrum, and they are trying to do whatever they can to spoil Globalive’s chances of success.

The incumbents all have a good reason to attack Globalive. As reported by the Globe and Mail, upstarts like Globalive, Public Mobile, and DAVE mobile will potentially eat up 24% of the Canadian wireless market by 2014. That’s some serious market share, and the incumbents aren’t going to lie down and let the new guys steal their lunch.

The biggest problem seems to come down to math. Globalive states that Lacavera is in control, and he is a Canadian citizen. The incumbents are complaining about the amount of ownership and possible influence that the Egyptian financial backer, Orascom Telecom, has on the Globalive company. The way that Lacavera has explained it, the Globalive team is following all the rules while still allowing for some out of this country funding. Here is the breakdown:

• Anthony Lacavera owns 35 % of Globalive, and Orascom owns 65%.
• Orascom funded over $500 Million so Globalive could pay for the wireless spectrum that they bought, and the bridge financing required for the infratructure
• Both of these parties have agreed to replace the loans with third-party investments – as soon as it is commercially viable.

Telus and Bell suggest that Globalive and Orascom are pulling a fast one – trying to get around the legalities by setting up separate companies but still providing Orascom with a majority stake in the company, and also with the added benefit of controlling the operations.

It shouldn’t be a big shock that Globalive was financed through another country, and as long as Globalive and Orascom commit to what they say they are going to do, there shouldn’t be any problems.

Well – still one hefty problem – the CRTC is under the influence of the incumbents. The decisions coming from this regulatory body will provide fuel for many posts to come.

Am I the only one that sees the irony in the CRTC grilling Globalive about being influenced by outside sources? Isn’t this the pot calling the kettle black?

More: You can read about the other two new cellular companies coming to Canada. TheTelecomBlog.com has profiled:
Coming to Canada this Fall – profiling Public Mobile
Coming to Canada this Fall – profiling Wind Mobile
Coming to Canada this winter – profiling Dave Wireless

Written by: Jason Finnerty & Jeff Wiener. www.digitcom.ca. Follow TheTelecomBlog.com by: RSS, Twitter, Identi.ca, or Friendfeed

Avaya is giving away FREE Avaya IP Office phone systems

Well sort of ! Don’t get too excited just yet. But, read on …

This fall, Avaya will be visiting 20 small businesses—organizations with 10 to 50 employees—and giving them FREE communications makeovers. They will help design and install solutions specially tailored to each company’s specific needs. Actually, the installation, if the winner happens to be in a city serviced by Digitcom.ca, might be done by one of our own technicians.

How it works:
It’s simple: You will need to explain the “disconnects” (no pun intended of course) that are hurting your business, and if you win, Avaya will help you fix them (by donating a FREE Avaya IP Office phone system).

The disconnect could be technical—like an outdated phone system, or a patched-together “system” that’s unreliable. Or it could be a human problem—like frustrated customers or a key employee who no one can get a hold of. Or it could be a combination of both.

Whatever the problem is, you will need to explain this in a short video or written essay. You can be funny. You can be serious. You can be desperate. But however you do it, be sure to submit it by October 15, 2009.

Interested in finding out more – check this out …

Interested in speaking with Digitcom.ca about a new phone system (that’s not FREE) – then visit our web site or give us a call – 866-667-8357

P.S. I have been in the Telecom business for 20 years. I’ve seen some real horror stories out there, so if you are looking for some good ideas then give me a shout !!

Written by: Jeff Wiener. www.digitcom.ca. Follow TheTelecomBlog.com by: RSS, Twitter, Identi.ca, or Friendfeed

Big Brother (Bell Canada) is watching what you are doing in a George Orwell way

“You must love Big Brother. It is not enough to obey him; you must love him.” – George Orwell 1984

Can you imagine a world where the information you access online, the personal and private data that you transmit, and the surfing patterns that you employ are all monitored by a corporate entity? A corporation that you pay to provide you with access to the internet?

Well – good news and bad news – you are already living in this world. Big Brother Bell Canada is using Deep Packet Inspection techniques to determine how you, their paying customer, are using the internet. What is deep packet inspection (DPI)? Wikipedia has a fantastic breakdown of DPI, and you really should read it to understand how badly Bell is violating the privacy of their customers. Basically, DPI is a wiretap of your internet, checking every packet of information that you send or receive.

What would a corporation do with this kind of information? Well, selling it would be the most likely situation.

Let’s just say that you choose to search for, uhm, compromising photos of inebriated women enjoying spring break in Florida. Since your ISP is able to see ALL of your search results with DPI, they might have sold your information to other companies that market to a person with your proclivities. Companies that want to provide you with more viewing options, similar to what you have previously searched for. Maybe at some times this is a good thing, but what if your wife/children/boss sees the results of your previous searches? This isn’t like a browser history that you can clear. These are targeted ads, directed at you, that indicate the types of interests you have online. Pretty hard to explain when they show up in your next search.

Or perhaps you feel safer knowing that your ISP can presort your incoming emails to determine if you are planning a coup. Perhaps this information could be sent to the government and authorities so that they can lock you up – before you have committed a crime.

Now Big Brother Bell says that they are not using this information to target specific individuals, merely they are trying to shape bandwidth to “punish” those that are using the internet for peer2peer transferring, spreading of viruses, or buffer over-flow attacks. Isn’t it fantastic that an ISP has the power of judge, jury, and executioner for the wild frontier that is the internet?

Maybe they can start telling us where and when we can go online, predetermining the “safe” sites that they have determined are best for us.

Canada’s watchdog on privacy has cowered politely requested that Bell Canada “generally” inform their customers about the DPI practice. A real watchdog would have demanded that Bell cease and desist all DPI operations, but I guess since we are Canadian, a polite request will have to suffice.

So – my question to you dear reader – is this acceptable?

And if Bell is allowed to do it, when will Telus, Rogers, Shaw, or MTS start doing it? If we don’t stop them, you know they won’t be able to overlook this incredible income stream opportunity.

Spread the word while you still can.

Tweet – Facebook update – Blog – email – whatever. Be loud and proud while you still can, for if you don’t say something now, you might not be able to in the future.

The dismantling of a Telecom Giant – Poof – Ericsson takes a slice out of Nortel

One more candle down. And Canada won’t be celebrating. A shame really. Nortel has been Canada’s Telecom’s gem for decades, and not that long ago, Canada’s business gem. Now they are almost gone; Quite the fall from glory. They had a market cap of $350 billion just 10 years ago, and now, POOF.

Well, business is business, and I don’t want to lament on the outcome. Nortel has unfortunately been a victim of their own demise, and now it looks like Ericsson will end up with Nortel’s crown jewel – the CDMA business, which they acquired through a court monitored auction on Friday for $1.13 Billion. There were 3 bidding firms: Nokia Siemens, Matlin Patterson, and Ericsson. $1.13 Billion was almost double the initial offer made by Nokia Siemens, which demonstrates that there is value in Nortel’s assets. It seems like Ericsson came out of left field – they weren’t even mentioned until very late in the auction process. Ericsson and Nortel were aggressive competitors with Nortel the predominant North American CDMA player. This will certainly help Ericsson solidify their position in the market.

The next candle to fall will be the Enterprise business. Avaya submitted their initial bid last Monday for $475 Million, and there will no doubt be more bids.

If the vultures had a meal, would they feast on Nortel ?

Bankruptcy, just like divorce, is a messy course. Who gets the kids, who gets the house, the RRSP … quick, let’s split everything up and hope that at the end of the day, we’re all happy. Then, nobody ends up content at the end of the line. It’s a zero sum game with losers all around.

What on earth was Nortel thinking when they went down this path ? It was over six months ago that Nortel filed for bankruptcy protection proclaiming that it’s “business as usual”. The fact is, once you head down this course, it will never be the same.

So many counterparts I spoke with suggested that Nortel would emerge a healthier and stronger company. How could that happen? Their employee relations were a mess, the products were suffering, and senior management was in complete denial. In fighting continues to stymie the bankruptcy process, and the vultures are hanging around looking for the small pieces of flesh to fly away with.

Now you’ve got to wonder, what exactly do these people /companies think they’re going to feast on ?

Matlin Patterson is going after the bits, further staking their interest by hiring ex-Nortel executive Dion Joannou to spearhead their bid for the remaining pieces. AllAboutNortel.com has an interesting posting on that. Nokia Siemens is going after the CDMA business, hoping to pick up the pieces for a really low price. It’s expected that they’ll re-coup their investment in less then a year – IF their assumptions are correct.

If the pieces were so good, wouldn’t you expect to see more vultures swooning in to pick some up ? But, they’re not. Maybe upon further investigation the other potential bidders realize they’re bidding on spoiled meat.

In the tech world you are as good as your last product, and in NortelLand, six months of chocked innovation (or maybe even longer) is a long time to be without a hit product. I suspect the other potential bidders are now realizing that all of the infighting, poor management, lack of product innovation, poor business decisions, and corporate greed are making the meal look awfully unappetizing.

Would somebody please pass the salt !

Rogers, Bell internet throttling. We’re heading down a slippery slope

The National Post has a story this morning that suggests Rogers would like Federal Regulators to stay clear “crafting new rules for how carriers can manage the flow and speed of Web traffic on their networks”. They argue that any technology they use to employ traffic shaping are purely for the larger good – slow down a few to help the majority on the internet. Apparently Rogers is looking out for the general populace.

Well hopefully the federal regulator doesn’t believe them. That’s kind of like putting the cat in charge of looking after the mouse house. Enough is enough.

Rogers and Bell should be regulated like the utilities that they are. Maybe we should hold a hearing on breaking up Rogers and Bell. In actual fact, Rogers controls both the pipeline and the content on that pipeline. And, what content might they be trying to regulate … VoIP, Internet TV ?

Who’s to say the next step, once and if the federal regulators side with Rogers argument , that Rogers won’t throttle some of the very bandwidth they’re trying to sell to their customers. Notice that many of the internet TV stations available to US viewers aren’t available in Canada – HBO.com, ABC.com’s live streaming of TV shows. Those aren’t available in Canada. It’s these regulators that push for these bans.

The world is becoming internet / IP based, and more and more content is flowing down these networks. We’re heading down a slippery slope – I’m hoping the CRTC realizes that.

Managing QoS on a VoIP LAN / WAN network

Touching on some of the issues I addressed in previous BLOG postings about VoIP and Quality of Service (QoS), we have addressed LAN and WAN VoIP related issues. IN particular, on the LAN side, it is certainly possible for an internal corporate network to itself get flooded with data, and in turn, experience packet loss, delay, jitter, echo …

On an internal network you can install a QoS (quality of service) switch which will prioritize the voice packets over the data packets on the internal network. Installing a QoS enabled router between two offices with data packets running over the Internet will NOT necessarily fix voice-related issues. That is because the voice packets are still running over the Internet, and remember, there is NO guarantee when sending voice over the Internet.

How do we overcome these issues? QoS is probably one of the most critical pieces. If we can GUARANTEE QoS, then we can GUARANTEE voice (as much as anything can ever be guaranteed). Therefore, if we wish to connect two offices together in a VoIP mode, or have someone working from home using VoIP, and you want perfect voice, then you will need to purchase POINT-to-POINT bandwidth.

This has been a frequent issue when dealing with customers. Perfect costs money in a VoIP world. I have many customers connecting home workers in the branch offices in Toronto, Montreal, new York, Chicago…without any problems whatsoever. I have other customers connecting two offices together, one two blocks away from the other, with terrible voice quality. If you use the Internet as your point of medium, then, and I will repeat what I said earlier, your voice will be subject to the vagrancies of the Internet.

My VoIP engineering rule: Garbage In = Garbage Out

And as I have said before, it doesn’t matter whether you are using an Avaya, Nortel, Mitel, Cisco phone system, they are all subject to the same issues.

Jeff Wiener
Digitcom.ca, 250 Rimrock Rd., Toronto, Ontario

Net Neutrality Crucial Issue for VoIP

In Ottawa this week, the Canadian Radio-television Telecommunications Commission is holding hearings on the controversial issue of Net Neutrality.

The crucial issue is whether the Internet should be a level playing field for all service and content providers, or whether ISPs should have the ability to shape/manage traffic to make sure their networks can operate as efficiently as possible, and that their customers are getting the services they need.

Of course, the issue is not that cut and dry, which is why Net Neutrality is such a contentious issue. One of the key considerations is whether ISPs can give a higher priority to their own traffic and those of their partners over traffic from companies riding on the same “highway”.

Guest Contributor: Mark Evans, markevans.ca

For companies providing VoIP services competing against ISPs such as Shaw, Cogeco, Telus, Rogers and Bell, the Net Neutrality hearings should be watched closely. If ISPs decided to shape or throttle traffic, it could have a serious impact on a VoIP service provider’s business if consumers see a difference in quality of service.

In the past, for example, Vonage filed a complaint with the CRTC over a $10 fee that Shaw was charging to ensure that Vonage customers received high-quality service for it and other content and services.

John Lawford, counsel with the Public Interest Advocacy Centre, told the CRTC that the logical solution is simply charging subscribers based on how much bandwidth they use, regardless of the application.

That makes a lot of sense, and reflects the pay-as-you-go approach popular in Europe with ISPs such as BT.

For more on the hearings, which continue until July 13, check out Mark Goldberg’s Telecom Trends blog, CBC.ca and the National Post, which look at the impact that throttling could have on the film industry.

Guest Contributor: Mark Evans, markevans.ca

Managing delay / latency critical to successful VoIP

Last week I posted an article on how packet loss can impact voice. Another issue which is critical to a successful VoIP implementation is DELAY.

Another issue which is critical to a successful VoIP implementation is DELAY. An IP packet gets transmitted normally in a very timely fashion. Therefore, the recipient will receive a continuous stream of packets every…let’s say 40 milliseconds. In this case, there is a 40-millisecond delay between when the sender sends the packet to when the recipient receives the packet. If the continuous IP packet delay is 40 milliseconds on both sides for the entire flow of conversation, then that would make for a clean VoIP conversation. However, it never happens exactly as planned. You see, in a data world, especially when packets are getting sent over the Internet, packets can get delayed. If the delay is too long, then it might appear as though the packet is actually lost. Let’s say for example, that we expect a 70-millisecond delay from sender to recipient. Therefore, every word that is said on the sending side is played out 70 milliseconds later on the recipient side. Packets are then coming out as follows: 70, 70, 60, 50, 40, 70, 70, 130, 70…and so on. The packet that arrived 130 milliseconds later will appear as a dead zone in the conversation, or essentially, be not that much different from a lost packet (as described in packet loss earlier). Delay and packet loss are therefore two of the more critical issues that need to be addressed in the VoIP world.

I will continue the discussion in future BLOG postings about how to mitigate against packet loss and what you might consider doing about it.

P.S. It doesn’t matter what kind of phone system you are running – Avaya IP Office, Nortel BCM, Cisco Unified Communication Manager – all systems are equally affected by poor VoIP.

Jeff

Digitcom.ca – 250 Rimrock Rd, Toronto, Canada